In what will come as good news for Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the latest opinion poll by ABP News-Lokniti CSDS claims that the BJP will come back to power for the fourth time in a row while Congress will serve as the main opposition. There is bad news for Vasundhara Raje though.
The survey predicts the BJP will win 116 seats – one more than the majority required – while the Congress will win 105. Other parties and independents are expected to win 9 assembly seats.
The survey had a sample size of 14,092 respondents for the states of MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
The BJP has been ruling MP since 2003 and Chouhan has been CM since 2005. The state will go to polls on November 28, with the results scheduled to be declared by the EC on December 11.
Meanwhile the same poll predicts that BJP will perform better in Chhattisgarh, pegging the Raman Singh-led government to win 52-60 seats. The poll predicts 17-25 for Congress in the 90-member Chhattisgarh assembly. In 2013, The BJP had won 49 seats while Congress had 39. The BSP had two seats. The state will go to polls in two phases on November 12 and November 20. The results will eb declared on Dec 11.
The poll also predicts losses for BJP in Rajasthan though. Of the 200 seats, it predicts BJP will get 84 while the Congress will get 110 - 10 more than the required majority.
Polling will be held in Rajasthan on December 7. The results will be announced on December 11 along with four other states.
Vasuhndara Raje has been CM since 2013.
Rural distress key headwind for BJP in state polls: Report
Low farm incomes and the resultant broader rural distress are "electoral issues" and the upcoming state elections will decide if the ruling BJP has been able to distance from those, says a brokerage report.
The state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which have around 65 Lok Sabha seats, will also reflect a "mood of the nation" ahead of the next general elections in April-May, Japanese brokerage Nomura said in a report Thursday.
"The state elections will also reflect the mood of the nation, and the extent to which the BJP has been able to distance itself from the electoral issues of low farm incomes and broader rural distress," it said.
Economic growth has fallen immediately after the demonetisation in November 2016 and GST introduction in July 2017, before picking up in the last two quarters.
The brokerage said going by opinion polls, the BJP is likely to retain Madhya Pradesh, lose Rajasthan and "remain competitive" in Chhattisgarh. The BJP is the incumbent in all the three states.
It said the election results, which will be out on December 11, will be a "mixed bag" for the BJP, but cited historical analysis to suggest that state poll results should not be extrapolated for predicting general election outcomes.
In the past, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have voted "overwhelmingly" for the BJP in Lok Sabha elections, but voters in Rajasthan have been less consistent, it said.
On the Telangana elections, it said the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samiti is likely to benefit from calling a flash election and the Congress has a better presence than BJP in the state.
WIth inputs from PTI